D 229 – R 206
218 seats needed to win
Last updated: 11/6
Congress Compass uses the latest district polls to create a forecast for the House of Representatives. Polling suggests that Democrats are ahead in 229 seats and the Republicans are ahead in 206 seats. 218 seats are needed for control of the House, and thus the Democratic Party is the slight favorite for overall control.
Congress Compass averages the polls with a simple weighting model that looks at sample size, age, and methodology. There are no adjustments nor “unskewing” of the margins, and fundamentals are only used where no polling is available. This model would have correctly predicted nearly all of the 2016 and 2014 House races.
Who’s ahead in each race?
You can view the spreadsheet in higher resolution here. The margin column displays Democratic margins, and thus Republican leads are represented as negative numbers. An asterisk next to a pollster’s name indicates that the poll was commissioned or even produced by a party, a political candidate, or political organization. MoE stands for “margin of error”, which is estimated based on sample size and the pollster’s average historical polling error.
How close are the elections?
Polling suggests that Democrats are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in 208 seats and the Republicans are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in 183 seats. 44 seats are within the average error for either the weighted polling average or individual House polls, or absent polling, they are considered tilt or toss-up by seasoned political scientists. The tilt or toss-up races are all displayed in yellow on the above map.
Congress Compass 