Biden (D) 335 – 203 (R) Trump
270 Electoral College votes needed to win
Last updated: 11/2
Based on a weighted average of the latest polling, Congress Compass predicts that Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden will win 335 Electoral College votes, while Republican nominee and incumbent President Donald Trump will win 203 electors. 270 Electoral College votes are needed to be elected President of the United States, and because Joe Biden is ahead by more than a standard error in states worth a combined total of more than 270, the race is Lean Biden (D).
No Tossup Map
Is this accurate? How is it made?
The Congress Compass presidential model would have accurately forecast the result of the last four presidential elections. In 2016, the model would have been the only one to predict that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College to Donald Trump. The 2008 forecast would have miscalled no states, while the 2012 and 2004 forecasts would have only miscalled one state each.
The average statewide error for the model across the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections is 3.7% and 196 out of 200 statewide races (98.0%) would have been called correctly. (See Accuracy for the full retroactive forecasts and data.) The model has only miscalled states that were ultimately decided by less than one percent across four election cycles.
The Congress Compass model is a weighted polling average that gives more weight to polls if they were released closer to the election or have a larger sample size. The Congress Compass presidential forecast further excludes online pollsters and accounts for the rapid changes of a presidential election by ensuring that only the latest polls are used when possible. There are also other tweaks, such as adding PVI when there are numerous undecideds in a statewide contest and changes to sample weighting relative to the Congressional model. (See Methodology for more information on how the model works.)
Who’s ahead in each state?
You can view the spreadsheet in higher resolution here. The margin column displays Democratic margins, and thus Republican leads are represented as negative numbers. An asterisk next to a pollster’s name indicates that the poll was commissioned or even produced by a party, a political candidate, or political organization.
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