2022 Congressional Forecast

Congress Compass uses the latest polls to create a forecast for the 2022 elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Congress Compass averages the polls with a simple weighting model that looks at sample size, age, and methodology. This model accurately forecasted the 2020 presidential election, with the lowest average marginal error of any polling-based forecast.

Senate

D 47 – R 53

51 (or 50 + VP) seats needed to win the Senate

Polling suggests that Democrats are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in 45 seats and the Republicans are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in 48 seats. 7 seats are within the average error for either the weighted polling average or individual Senate polls, or absent polling, they are considered tilt or toss-up by seasoned political scientists. The tilt races are all displayed in yellow on the above map.

For the Senate, Democrats are ahead in 47 seats while the Republicans are ahead in 53 seats. 51 seats, or 50 seats plus the Vice President to break ties, are needed for control of the Senate, and thus the Republican Party is the slight favorite overall for the upper chamber.

House of Representatives

D 207 – R 228

218 seats needed to win the House of Representatives

Polling suggests that Democrats are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in **184** seats and the Republicans are ahead or favored by more than a standard error in **202** seats. 49 seats are within the average error for either the weighted polling average or individual House polls, or absent polling, they are considered tilt or toss-up by seasoned political scientists. The tilt or toss-up races are all displayed in yellow on the above map.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats are ahead in 207 seats and the Republicans are ahead in 228 seats. 218 seats are needed for control of the House, and thus the Republican Party is the slight favorite overall for the lower chamber.